I. Ntsiab tsom xam
1. Muaj Bauxite khoom
Raws li lub Cuaj Hlis xyoo no, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam bauxite txhua hli tau nce mus txog 15.88 lab tons, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 38.14%, kwv yees li 4.384 lab tons, nce ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no sawv cev rau ib hlis - ntawm - hli poob ntawm kwv yees li 2.41 lab tons, uas qhia txog kev poob qis raws caij nyoog. Cov khoom xa tuaj rau xyoo no muaj tag nrho 157 lab tons, ib xyoos -ntawm- xyoo nce ntawm kwv yees li 32%, kwv yees li 38.105 lab tons. Hais txog cov peev txheej, Guinea thiab Australia tseem yog cov neeg xa khoom tseem ceeb, nrog Guinea yog qhov tseem ceeb. Xyoo no, cov khoom xa tuaj los ntawm Guinea tau nce mus txog 118 lab tons, ib xyoos -ntawm- xyoo nce ntawm 40.3%, kwv yees li 34 lab tons, suav txog 75% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj. Cov khoom xa tuaj los ntawm Australia xyoo no muaj tag nrho 27.712 lab tons, ib xyoos -ntawm-xyoo poob ntawm 5.4%, kwv yees li 1.5 lab tons, suav txog 17.6% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj. Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev ntshuam los ntawm Australia xyoo no tau nruab nrab, nrog kev txo qis me ntsis thiab cuam tshuam tsawg. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev xa khoom los ntawm Guinea yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev nce hauv cov khoom siv bauxite xyoo no.
Saib ntawm cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia hauv tsev bauxite, raws li lub Kaum Hlis 17th, raws li Mysteel cov ntaub ntawv, cov khoom lag luam hauv chaw nres nkoj bauxite sawv ntawm 28.689 lab tons, ib lub lis piam - ntawm - lub lis piam nce ntawm 653,000 tons, tseem nyob rau theem siab. Tus nqi tiag tiag no yog nyob ze ntawm plaub-xyoo siab rau tib lub sijhawm, ntau dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los (kwv yees li 7.219 lab tons). Lub caij no, cov khoom xa tawm hauv hiav txwv yog 11.9243 lab tons, ib lub lis piam- ntawm- lub lim tiam ntawm kev txo qis ntawm kwv yees li 1.581 lab tons, qis dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, tab sis tseem nyob rau theem siab rau tib lub sijhawm hauv plaub xyoos dhau los. Yog li ntawd, peb tuaj yeem txiav txim siab tias cov khoom siv bauxite hauv tsev tau txaus nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv thiab yuav tsis cuam tshuam rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm alumina li qub.
2. Kev tsim khoom txhua lub lim tiam tseem muaj siab, thaum cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.
Raws li Mysteel cov txheeb cais, txij li Lub Kaum Hli 17, lub peev xwm ntawm alumina hauv tsev tau mus txog 112.55 lab tons, tsis hloov pauv txij thaum Lub Xya Hli kawg. Kev khiav hauj lwm muaj peev xwm mus txog 96.8 lab tons, ib lub lim tiam txo ntawm 1.4 lab tons thiab nce 100,000 tons los ntawm lub Cuaj Hli kawg. Kev tsim tawm txhua lub limtiam mus txog 1.861 lab tons, ib lub limtiam poob ntawm 2,000 tons, tab sis tseem nyob rau theem siab ntawm 1.86 lab tons hauv ib lub lis piam, ntau dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm txhua lub limtiam ntau lawm piv ntawm alumina thiab electrolytic aluminium, raws li ib tug ncaj qha downstream ntawm alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm ncaj qha qhia txog domestic thov rau alumina. Raws li lub Kaum Hlis 17th, raws li Mysteel kev txheeb cais, kev tsim cov alumina hauv tsev ib lub lim tiam yog 1.861 lab tons, thaum lub limtiam electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm yog 852,900 tons, ua rau muaj qhov sib piv ntawm 2.18. Qhov no sawv cev rau kev hloov pauv me ntsis txhua lub lim tiam, tab sis tseem ceeb dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los (2.05). Piv nrog rau tus qauv smelting piv ntawm 1.93, domestic alumina tseem nyob rau hauv oversupply.
Raws li rau cov khoom lag luam alumina hauv tsev, raws li Mysteel cov txheeb cais, txij li lub Kaum Hlis 17th, cov khoom lag luam alumina hauv tsev yog 4.639 lab tons, ib lub lis piam nce ntawm 63,000 tons thiab piv rau 134,000 tons thaum kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli. Cov qauv no qhia tau hais tias cov khoom muag tau nce ntxiv txij li thaum kawg ntawm lub Tsib Hlis xyoo no, tag nrho kwv yees li 845,000 tons, nce mus txog qhov siab kawg rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los thiab ntau dua li 3.918 lab tons ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Saib ntawm qhov kev tawg, cov khoom lag luam chaw nres nkoj tau nce 29,000 tons hauv lub lis piam- ntawm- lub lim tiam, cov khoom lag luam alumina cog tseem tsis hloov pauv, cov khoom lag luam electrolytic aluminium tau nce 11,000 tons, thiab cov khoom muag platform / tsheb thauj mus los tau nce 23,000 tons. Tam sim no, kev lag luam hauv tsev alumina smelting tseem tswj tau qee qhov nyiaj tau los, thiab tsis muaj ntawv ceeb toom ntawm kev txiav ntau lawm. Yog li ntawd, qhov xwm txheej oversupply nyob rau hauv kev lag luam alumina yuav tsum tau mus ntxiv, thiab cov khoom muag yuav nce mus ntxiv kom txog thaum cov nqi poob qis dua cov nqi smelting, ua rau kev lag luam kom txo qis ntau lawm los tswj kev ua haujlwm.
3. Cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem tuaj txog ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj, thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam hauv tsev tau poob qis.
Saib ntawm txawv teb chaws alumina tus nqi sib txawv thiab domestic ntshuam thiab xa tawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov ntaub ntawv poob, raws li lub Kaum Hlis 17, Australian alumina FOB tus nqi yog $ 323 / tuj, tsis hloov ntawm lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj kawg, tab sis nqis $ 45 / tuj los ntawm lub Yim Hli kawg, txo qis ntawm kwv yees li 12.2%. Cov nqi hauv tsev tau poob los ntawm kwv yees li 8.26% thaum lub sijhawmtib lub sij hawm, qhia tau hais tias txawv teb chaws alumina nyob rau hauv ntau dua thiab nws cov nqi sib txawv tsis muaj zog nyob rau hauv lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj. Yog li ntawd, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov nyiaj tau los hauv tsev, kev nthuav dav alumina ntshuam cov nyiaj tau los nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, qhib kev xa tawm, thiab kev nkag mus ntawm qee cov khoom, suav nrog cov sijhawm xa khoom, yuav ua rau lawv tuaj txog ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj thaum Lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov khoom siv hauv tsev alumina oversupply.
Raws li Myteel cov ntaub ntawv, raws li lub Kaum Hlis 3rd, tag nrho cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm kev lag luam alumina smelting hauv tsev yog 2854.3 yuan / tuj, thiab cov txiaj ntsig nruab nrab yog 135.4 yuan / tuj. Txij thaum lub Yim Hli thaum ntxov, smelting profits tau txuas ntxiv nqaim. Nrog rau qhov tsis ntev los no ntxiv poob ntawm alumina qhov chaw nqi, nws cia siab tias kev lag luam smelting profits yuav ntxiv rau qis dua 100 yuan / tuj. Xav txog cov nqi sib txawv ntawm sab qaum teb thiab sab qab teb ntawm kev lag luam alumina smelting hauv tsev, siab - cov cheeb tsam tus nqi yuav tsum muaj kev poob qis. Txawm hais tias tam sim no tsis muaj kev tshaj tawm txog kev txiav tawm lossis kev kaw, raws li alumina cov nqi pheej yig txuas ntxiv mus, smelting profits yuav inevitably txuas ntxiv nqaim kom txog thaum lawv nkag mus rau qhov poob - ua thaj tsam. Thaum lub sijhawm ntawd, cov nqi siab - cov cheeb tsam tus nqi yuav ntsib ntau dua qhov kev tsim khoom ntau dua, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev txiav cov khoom tsim tawm lossis kev kaw yog siab dua.
4. Kev nce ntxiv hauv warehouse Receipts
Saib ntawm lub hli tsis ntev los no cov ntaub ntawv txais nyiaj hauv tsev rau cov alumina hauv tsev, cov ntawv txais nyiaj hauv tsev tau hloov pauv ntau xyoo no, feem ntau poob rau hauv peb theem. Ua ntej, ua ntej nruab nrab -Lub Plaub Hlis, nrog kev cia siab ntawm kev xa khoom ntau dhau thiab cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv mus, cov nqi yav tom ntej tau poob qis, ua rau muaj kev tiv thaiv muaj zog hauv kev lag luam thiab nce ntxiv hauv cov ntawv txais nyiaj. Thib ob, txij li nruab nrab -Lub Plaub Hlis mus txog rau thaum xaus Lub Xya Hli, qhov chaw thiab cov nqi yav tom ntej tau ruaj khov thiab rov qab los. Cov khoom lag luam alumina hauv tsev feem ntau qis thiab tau poob los ntawm lawv qhov siab. Nrog rau qhov chaw ntim khoom nruj, cov ntawv txais nyiaj hauv tsev tau txuas ntxiv ntws tawm, mus txog qib qis heev thaum kawg Lub Xya Hli. Thaum kawg, txij thaum Lub Xya Hli mus txog rau tam sim no, nrog kev rov qab los ntawm cov nqi muag khoom, cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam hauv tsev tau rov qab los, kev ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm rov qab los sai, cov khoom lag luam tau nce, thiab raws li kev cia siab ntawm oversupply, warehouse receipts tau nce ntxiv. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias cov ntawv txais nyiaj hauv tsev khaws khoom, ntau dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis rau cov nqi yav tom ntej. Analogous rau kev lag luam tiam sis thiab cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nws xav tias cov ntawv txais khoom tuaj yeem tsuas yog ua tiav muag tawm thaum cov khoom muag hauv tsev tau zom.
II. Summary thiab Outlook
Raws li qhov xwm txheej tam sim no, peb ntseeg tias:
Cov khoom lag luam bauxite hauv tsev yog siab, nrog cov khoom siv txaus, thiab yuav tsis cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv alumina hauv tsev; tam sim no kev khiav hauj lwm muaj peev xwm thiab cov zis txhua lub limtiam tseem siab, smelting profits tseem nqaim, thiab lub limtiam tso zis piv ntawm alumina rau electrolytic txhuas tseem qhia oversupply; Cov nqi alumina txawv teb chaws tsis muaj zog nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, qhib kev xa tawm thiab tso cai rau qee cov khoom siv ntws mus rau hauv, xav tias yuav tuaj txog rau lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dhau ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev; cov khoom lag luam alumina hauv tsev txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv, nce mus txog keeb kwm qib siab rau tib lub sijhawm, ntau dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, thiab tseem tsis tau pom qhov hloov pauv; Cov ntawv txais nyiaj pauv hloov pauv tau nce ntxiv txij li thaum kawg ntawm Lub Xya Hli, nce siab dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, ua rau txo qis rau cov nqi hauv tsev.
Raws li qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev ua lag luam, qhov tsis zoo tshwm sim ntau dua qhov zoo, thiab cov nqi tsis xav tias yuav txhim kho nyob rau lub sijhawm luv. Nws raug pom zoo kom tsom mus rau kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov nqi smelting. Lub hauv paus tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau yav tom ntej yuav yog kev txaus siab ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev smelting kom nquag txo cov peev txheej ua haujlwm. Thaum smelting profits nkag mus rau hauv qhov poob cheeb tsam, kev lag luam tus cwj pwm thiab tus nqi sib dhos ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav rov ua nws tus kheej.